Update – Hurricane Dorian – September 5, 2019

To All,

Hurricane Dorian’s center is roughly 220 miles from our coast line and the eye forecasted to be about 25 miles off shore. We are now experiencing the outer bands that have strong winds and short lived tornadoes. As the day goes on the weather will deteriorate. If you are not ready it is not too late. If you or anyone you know needs shelter get to the shelter as soon as possible, before it gets too bad. Please do not go out during this storm. The worst is yet to come.

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  48

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

500 AM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Dorian continues to exhibit a large eye of about 50 n mi in

diameter on satellite and radar images.  Earlier data from

hurricane hunter aircraft indicate little change to the minimum

central pressure, and flight-level winds still support an intensity

close to 100 kt at this time.  Dorian should soon begin to

experience increasing southwesterly shear, which should lead to at

least slow weakening during the next couple of days.  The official

forecast maintains the cyclone at hurricane strength through 72

hours, which is in general agreement with the LGEM guidance and on

the high side of the guidance suite.  By 72 hours, the global models

show Dorian becoming embedded within a baroclinic zone, and

simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF model depicts a highly

asymmetric cloud pattern.  Therefore, the NHC forecast shows the

system becoming extratropical by that time.

Dorian’s initial motion is about 010/6 kt.  The hurricane is

currently moving through a break in the subtropical ridge.  Within

a day or so, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increasing

forward speed in response to a broad mid-tropospheric trough to the

north.  The official track forecast remains in good agreement with

the dynamical model consensus.  The forecast track and wind radii

now require the issuance of a tropical storm watch for extreme

southeastern New England.

The center of Dorian is still expected to move very near or over

the coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic

states.  Residents of these areas should already be prepared for

damaging winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected

along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and

portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,

regardless of the exact track of Dorian’s center.  Water levels

could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds.

Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local

emergency officials.

2. Flash flooding will become increasingly likely across the eastern

Carolinas today.  There is a high risk of flash flooding over

coastal sections of the Carolinas where life-threatening flash

flooding is expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 31.7N 79.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

12H  05/1800Z 32.7N 78.9W  95 KT 110 MPH

24H  06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W  90 KT 105 MPH

36H  06/1800Z 36.1N 74.5W  85 KT 100 MPH

48H  07/0600Z 38.3N 70.8W  80 KT  90 MPH

72H  08/0600Z 46.0N 61.5W  65 KT  75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H  09/0600Z 53.0N 52.5W  50 KT  60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  10/0600Z 58.0N 38.0W  40 KT  45 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP