Tropical Weather Outlook – Tropical Storm Nate  October 6, 2017

TS Nate

TS Nate

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 6 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Nate, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a
frontal boundary about 800 miles southwest of the Azores on
Saturday.  Environmental conditions suggest the low will then
acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics, and a
tropical or subtropical cyclone could form early next week.  The low
is forecast to drift over the northeastern Atlantic for the next
several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

Forecaster BlakeTS Nate 2

 


Tropical Weather Outlook – Tropical Storm Nate   October 5, 2017

TS Nate is affecting the coast of Nicaragua, and soon to move into the warm waters of the Gulf.  It looks like an Alabama landfall, maybe as a hurricane.  There may be some rain by early next week.

Nate 1

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017

500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017

Deep convection associated with the depression has increased over

the eastern portion of the circulation overnight, however there

has only been a slight increase in overall banding.  Subjective

Dvorak intensity estimates suggest that the depression is near

tropical-storm strength, but with the center located near the

western edge of the deep convection the cyclone is kept as

a 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory.

The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to expected land

interaction today, and possibly again in about 48 hours when the

system passes near the Yucatan peninsula.  The depression could

still become a tropical storm before the center moves over

northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today.  After the

cyclone moves north of Honduras, it will traverse the warm waters of

the northwestern Caribbean Sea, where the upper-level environment is

also forecast to be conducive for strengthening. However, the amount

of strengthening is likely to depend on the structure of the inner

core after it crosses land. The intensity models have continued

their downward trend, but the NHC forecast remains near the higher

side of the guidance due to these favorable conditions and

persistence from the previous advisory.  Some additional

strengthening is possible while the system moves over the southern

and central Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC intensity forecast brings

the system to hurricane strength within 72 hours.  This is in best

agreement with the SHIPS intensity model.

The depression is moving northwestward or 315/6 kt.  The cyclone is

forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward during the

next day or two around the western side of a ridge the extends from

near the southeastern Bahamas southwestward into the central

Caribbean Sea. By the weekend, a large mid- to upper-level ridge is

forecast to build off the coast of the southeastern United States,

and this should steer the cyclone north-northwestward at a faster

forward speed.  After 72 hours, the system is expected to recurve

around the northwestward side of the ridge.  The track guidance is

in better agreement this cycle with the latest runs of the ECMWF

and UKMET models shifting westward, closer to the previous GFS and

HWRF iterations.  This has required a fairly substantial westward

shift in the NHC forecast track at 72 h and beyond.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm

conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early

Friday.  Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash

flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa

Rica, and Panama through Friday night.

2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches

the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from

wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch is

in effect for a portion of this area.

3. The system is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and

could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this

weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy

rainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing, location,

or magnitude of these impacts.  Residents along the Gulf Coast from

Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress

of this system and heed any advice given by local officials.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0900Z 13.3N  83.3W   30 KT  35 MPH

12H  05/1800Z 14.3N  83.9W   30 KT  35 MPH…INLAND

24H  06/0600Z 16.3N  84.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

36H  06/1800Z 19.0N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

48H  07/0600Z 21.8N  87.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

72H  08/0600Z 27.8N  89.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

96H  09/0600Z 34.0N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH…INLAND

120H  10/0600Z 39.5N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND

Nate2 

Nate3$$

Forecaster Brown


Tropical Weather Outlook – October 4, 2017

#16

Great Another one!  Probably will affect NC by next week.

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017

1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the

southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since

yesterday and is now a tropical depression.  GOES-16 one-minute

visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands

of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island.  The initial

wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite

classification, given recent microwave data.  An Air Force Reserve

Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to

provide a better estimate.

Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental

conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression.  A

large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of

Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid

intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or

southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm

and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the

depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America.  The

official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the

high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based

tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around

a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.

However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the

aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern

Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on

the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move

much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the

Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.  As the trough moves away, a building

ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system

to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf

states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to

the representation of the Florida Straits trough.  The GFS-based

guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the

new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of

the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the

UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,

but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.

 

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm

conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras

tonight through Thursday.

2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of

Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a

hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,

and heavy rainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing

or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from

Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for

the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 12.2N  81.9W   30 KT  35 MPH

12H  05/0000Z 12.7N  82.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

24H  05/1200Z 13.8N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH…INLAND

36H  06/0000Z 15.3N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH…INLAND

48H  06/1200Z 17.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

72H  07/1200Z 23.5N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

96H  08/1200Z 29.0N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

120H  09/1200Z 34.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH…POST-TROP/INLAND

$$

Forecaster Blake

 

162


Tropical Weather Outlook – September 29, 2017

Hurricane Season is still here.  A couple of systems to watch.

Other systemsTropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Fri Sep 29 2017

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Maria, located over the western Atlantic Ocean a few hundred

miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia, and on Hurricane Lee, located

over the north Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southeast

of Newfoundland.

1. A broad trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level

low is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and

showers. This activity extends from the northwestern Caribbean

Sea northward across western Cuba to the southern Florida peninsula.

This trough has moved slowly westward since yesterday, and a weak

low is now likely to form from this system near the west coast of

Florida during the weekend.  Environmental conditions appear to be

conducive for some development of the low before the upper-level

winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless of

development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall

over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the

Florida peninsula during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…40 percent.

2. A tropical wave is producing cloudiness and showers over the

northeastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic waters.

Although there are no signs of organization and surface pressures

are not falling at this time, conditions could become a little more

favorable for some development next week while the system moves

toward the west-northwest.  This system is expected to bring

locally heavy rains over the northern Leeward Islands, including

Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.

Forecaster Avila

Other systems 2


 Hurricane Maria – September 25, 2017

Maria 3

 

 

Maria 5

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