Tropical Update – Tropical Storm Michael – October 8, 2018

To All,

I know you do not want to hear this or even look at this update, but please start making preparations for a tropical event to hit the area around Thursday and Friday.  We will probably will make protective actions by Wednesday.

TS Michael

 

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018

1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

The satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve

overnight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an

area of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible

imagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave

overpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft.  The

aircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most

recent pass through the center, and also found flight-level

winds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this

advisory.

Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western

portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that

direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a

little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of

the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Now that Michael has developed an

inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the

next 24 to 36 hours.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and

DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during

the next 24 hours.  The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end

of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24

hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status.  After

that time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of

intensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly

shear.  Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track

keeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast

U.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm

through 72 hours.  The system should become a powerful extratropical

low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days.

Reconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving

a little east of due north.  The hurricane should move northward or

north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm

crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  By 48 hours, Michael should

turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central

United States.  The cross-track spread in the guidance has

decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in

how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico.  The HWRF

and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still

much slower.  The NHC track is along the eastern side of the

guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm,

and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The

post-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based

on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it

reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-

threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida

Gulf Coast regardless of the storm’s exact track or intensity.

Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow

any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane

warnings will likely be issued later today.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.

3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba

this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan

Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding

over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula

of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 21.2N  84.9W   65 KT  75 MPH

12H  09/0000Z 22.6N  85.3W   85 KT 100 MPH

24H  09/1200Z 24.4N  85.9W   95 KT 110 MPH

36H  10/0000Z 26.4N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

48H  10/1200Z 28.6N  86.1W  105 KT 120 MPH

72H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH…INLAND

96H  12/1200Z 37.8N  73.6W   50 KT  60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  13/1200Z 42.8N  59.0W   55 KT  65 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

 

 

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