Public Notices

To All,

Hopefully by now everyone has taken the precautions for the storm. While the storm bares down on us please do be out after 8 pm that is when the curfew takes effect. All EOC’s in the County are operational and will remain open to until. Please Be safe.

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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  50

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019

500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected

slow weakening trend.  Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show

that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly

rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming

less well defined.  The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has

reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with

700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial

intensity is reduced to 90 kt.

The hurricane is continuing its expected northeastward turn, and the

initial motion is now 035/9.  The mid-latitude westerlies should

steer Dorian generally northeastward at an increasing forward speed,

with the eye passing near of over portions of the North Carolina

coast during the next 12-24 h.  After that, Dorian is forecast to

move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the

Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 60 h.  As was the case in

the previous advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered,

and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous

one.

Due to increasing shear, Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it

moves near and along the South and North Carolina coasts.

Extratropical transition should begin around 36-48 h and be complete

by 60 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force

winds through the transition.  After transition is complete, the

extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic and be

absorbed into a larger low pressure area by 120 h.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the

coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states.

Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging

winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.  It also

appears that Dorian will affect portion of eastern Canada as a

hurricane-force extratropical low.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected

along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and

portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,

regardless of the exact track of Dorian’s center.  Water levels

could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents

in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency

officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more

widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia

through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these

areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is

expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 33.1N 78.5W  90 KT 105 MPH

12H  06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W  90 KT 105 MPH

24H  06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W  85 KT 100 MPH

36H  07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W  80 KT  90 MPH

48H  07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W  75 KT  85 MPH

72H  08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W  65 KT  75 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

96H  09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W  50 KT  60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  10/1800Z 0.0S 0.0W   0 KT   0 MPH…DISSIPATED