Hurricane Irma Outlook – National Weather Service, Wilmington, NC – September 7, 2017

Outlook & Key Points for Major Hurricane Irma

Overview: The current forecast continues with a turn to the north by Irma just south of Florida this weekend. The uncertainty of where the turn will occur is still high, so the uncertainty of the impacts to northeast South Carolina and southeast North Carolina are still high. As a result of the expected northward movement the probability for at least tropical storm force winds continues to increasing across the region.

Impacts: Dangerous surf & rip currents are expected through the weekend. It’s too early to tell what specific surge, wind, rainfall, & tornado impacts could occur. However, regardless of the ultimate track of the storm the combination of above normal astronomical tides & large wave action is likely to cause beach erosion which can further damage vulnerable coastal infrastructure previously damaged by Matthew.

Current Information:

Center location: 20.1 N 69.0 W

About 165 miles SE of Grand Turk Island

Maximum Sustained winds: 180 mph with higher gusts

Movement: WNW at 17 mph

Pressure: 921 mb or 27.20 inches

Key Points:

1) People should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

2) The time for initial preparations is now. Please monitor official and credible sources for further information.

2) Ensure that your supplies are in order & know what your family would do if evacuations are ordered.

3) Remember that there are large track errors in long range hurricane predictions. Also, the error

cone is not an impact cone. Impacts can occur outside of this cone.

4) NC and SC are now in the tropical storm force winds probabilities – see next page.