Tropical Update – Thursday, September 6, 2018

To All,

The Five Tropical Outlook has put a lot of red on the map for us to watch.   As I have said earlier, we need to watch Hurricane Florence closely.  By Monday, the east coast could be very interesting to see if we are in the in the error cone, or even closer.  If we are, just be prepared for any protective actions.

The last graphic give the 3 and 5 day error cone.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Florence, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Depression Gordon, located near the Mississippi-Arkansas border.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is centered several

hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The

associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in

organization since yesterday, and there are no indications yet that

the system has a well-defined center of circulation.  However,

environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a

tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days

while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward across

the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa

on Friday.  Some development of this system is anticipated after

that time, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or

early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward

over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Interests in the

Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system

during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Public Advisories on Gordon are issued by the Weather Prediction

Center under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the

web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Berg