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NOAA Winter 2019-2020 Season Outlook – November 1, 2019

NOAA recently released the official Winter Outlook for the 2019-2020 season.  For the eastern Carolinas temperatures will have an increased potential to run above normal.  Rainfall has approximately equal chances to be below, near, or above normal.
Read more about the outlook and how this winter season may unfold across the eastern Carolinas here: https://www.weather.gov/ilm/WinterOutlook2019-2020

Tropical Weather Update – October 17, 2019

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Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low

pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to

show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are expected

to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or

subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the

system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of

Mexico.  The low is forecast to approach the northern or

northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of

development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough

surf over those areas.  Locally heavy rainfall is also possible

across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this

weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast

should monitor the progress of this system.  For more information

about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico,

see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of

the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance

aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if

necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01

KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Offshore Waters Forecasts for the Gulf of Mexico issued by the

National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header MIAOFFNT4,

WMO header FZNT24 KNHC, and online at

www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAOFFNT4.shtml

Weather Outlook – Monday, October 7, 2019

Wind Fields Friday

 

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2019For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic

Ocean between Bermuda and the Azores is producing gale-force winds

to the north of its center.  Environmental conditions are forecast

to be generally conducive for the low to acquire some subtropical or

tropical characteristics during the next day or two, and this system

could become a tropical or subtropical storm on Tuesday or Wednesday

while it moves slowly westward.  Upper-level winds are expected to

become unfavorable for further development by Wednesday night.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas

Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms located over the western Atlantic

between the southeastern coast of the United States and Bermuda

are associated with a trough of low pressure.  This system is

forecast to move northwestward and a non-tropical low pressure area

is expected to form when the system interacts with a frontal

boundary in a couple of days.  The low could acquire some

subtropical characteristics later in the week while it meanders

off the east coast of the United States.  Additional information on

this system can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the

National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…30 percent.

3. A trough of low pressure extending from the Straits of Florida

northeastward across the southern Florida peninsula is producing

disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Some slight development of

this system is possible on Tuesday when it moves over the far

western Atlantic.  The disturbance is forecast to merge with a

frontal boundary and developing low off the east coast of the

United States by Wednesday, and no further development is

anticipated after that time.  Regardless of development, this system

is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the

the southern Florida peninsula during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…low…10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01

KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Tropical Update – September 24, 2019

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019

500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

During the last pass through Karen’s center around 0430 UTC, the Air

Force reconnaissance aircraft reported some believable SFMR winds of

34-35 kt in the southeastern quadrant and an extrapolated central

pressure of 1006 mb. The 925-mb flight-level height had also

decreased by almost 20 meters in about 2 hours, an indication that

the lower pressure estimate was legitimate. Reflectivity and

velocity data from the San Juan NOAA WSR-88D Doppler radar also

enunciate that Karen’s inner-core has become better defined over

the past few hours. Satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were

T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and T2.4/34 kt and 40 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and

SATCON, respectively. Based on the recon and satellite intensity

data, Karen has re-strengthened to tropical storm status.

The initial motion is now northward or 360/06 kt. Karen’s forecast

track hinges heavily on the future intensity and associated vertical

structure of the cyclone. The GFS, GFS-Legacy, UKMET, and HRWF

dynamical models take a much weaker and more vertically shallow

cyclone northeastward after 48 hours and either continue with that

motion through day 5 or dissipate the system. In contrast, the ECMWF

and many of its stronger ensemble members stall Karen around days

3-4 and then turn the somewhat stronger and deeper cyclone westward

to west-southwestward to the south of a building ridge. Given that

Karen is forecast to be stronger and vertically deeper than the

weaker models, the current track forecast leans more toward the

stronger ECMWF and ECMWF-Ensemble model solutions. The new NHC

forecast is to the right of the previous advisory track and slower,

especially on days 3-5, but the new track does not extend as far

east as the weaker GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models or the consensus

models that incorporate those three models.

None of the dynamical models, including the HWRF and HMON hurricane

models, show much in the way of strengthening once Karen moves

north of Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands except for the ECMWF model,

despite the very low vertical wind shear conditions that the cyclone

will be moving into by 24 hours and beyond. Given Karen’s decent

wind field and vertical structure, the expected low shear

conditions, moist mid-level environment, and SSTs of more than 29

deg C for the next 48 hours or so, forecasting at least slow but

steady strengthening seems to be quite reasonable. By days 3-5, the

mid-level environment dries out significantly, which the weaker

models seem to be keying on. However, if Karen strengthens as

currently expected, then the cyclone’s robust circulation should

be able to mix out any dry air intrusions, allowing for at least

additional modest intensification to occur in the 72-120 hour

period. The official intensity forecast is a little above the

previous advisory, and is basically an average of the weaker

dynamical models and the stronger GFS- and ECMWF-based

statistical-dynamical models Decay-SHIPS and LGEM.

Key Messages:

1.  Karen is expected to bring heavy rainfall, flash floods and

mudslides to Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands

today, where a tropical storm warning is in effect.  The rainfall

and potential flooding will likely continue on Wednesday even as the

center of Karen moves away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 16.8N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

12H  24/1800Z 18.1N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH

24H  25/0600Z 20.1N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

36H  25/1800Z 22.6N  64.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

48H  26/0600Z 24.6N  64.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

72H  27/0600Z 27.3N  62.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

96H  28/0600Z 28.0N  63.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

120H  29/0600Z 27.7N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

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