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To All,

The 11:00 am advisory has moved a little south, based on this advisory Hurricane Florence will be about 460 miles from our coast on Wednesday morning.   Still early to tell exactly where Florence will make landfall, but we need to prepare now.

Tropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  33

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018

1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018

Moderate to strong southwesterly shear continues to affect Florence,

but visible and microwave satellite images indicate that the

cyclone is maintaining a vigorous, but tilted, circulation.

A mid-level eye feature is noted in both types of satellite

imagery, but the low-level center still appears displaced to the

southwest.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates

have stopped falling–and some have even begun to increase a bit

again–so the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt.

The shear over Florence has likely reached its maximum and is

expected to decrease below 20 kt in 6-12 hours and then decrease to

10 kt or less in 36 hours.  All the while, sea surface temperatures

will be gradually increasing to between 28-29C, and perhaps more

importantly, oceanic heat content values will double in 3-4 days.

It may take the cyclone some time to gather itself once the shear

abates, but once it becomes vertically stacked again, the intensity

is likely to increase significantly.  The guidance is in agreement

on this scenario, and Florence is likely to re-attain hurricane

status in about 48 hours and then potentially major hurricane

strength by days 4-5.  The new official forecast is fairly similar

to the previous one, generally close to the ICON intensity consensus

and slightly below the HCCA model on days 4 and 5.

Florence is moving westward, or 270/7 kt, to the south of the

eastern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending east of the

Mid-Atlantic United States.  The global model guidance is actually

in fairly good agreement on the general evolution of the steering

pattern around Florence through day 5.  While it remains a tilted

cyclone, Florence is expected to continue moving westward for the

next 48 hours.  After that time, a break in the ridge should allow

Florence to turn west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.

A new mid-level ridge is expected to develop over the western

Atlantic on days 4-5, but the position of that high will play a big

role regarding how much Florence may turn by the end of the

forecast period.  Only a slight southward nudge of forecast track

was required on this cycle, keeping the NHC prediction between the

GFS and ECMWF solutions.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of Florence’s eventual track, large swells will begin

to affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast

this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along

the U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is

still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence’s track

beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,

magnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along

the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through

the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 25.0N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

12H  08/0000Z 24.9N  52.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

24H  08/1200Z 24.9N  54.0W   55 KT  65 MPH

36H  09/0000Z 24.9N  55.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

48H  09/1200Z 25.1N  56.2W   65 KT  75 MPH

72H  10/1200Z 25.9N  59.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

96H  11/1200Z 27.5N  65.5W  110 KT 125 MPH

120H  12/1200Z 30.0N  72.0W  115 KT 130 MPH

$$

Forecaster Berg

To All,

As you see below the error cone keeps getting closer to the coast of NC.   By Monday or sooner,  I think we will be in the error cone.  This will prompt us to start our Hurricane preparations.   Do not wait to start Monday for your family to get ready and have a plan.  This current path will bring the storm very close to our area.  We will be ready.

Also, in the back of your mind there are other systems we are keeping a close eye on.   More to come.

To All,

The Five Tropical Outlook has put a lot of red on the map for us to watch.   As I have said earlier, we need to watch Hurricane Florence closely.  By Monday, the east coast could be very interesting to see if we are in the in the error cone, or even closer.  If we are, just be prepared for any protective actions.

The last graphic give the 3 and 5 day error cone.

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Thu Sep 6 2018

For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane

Florence, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Depression Gordon, located near the Mississippi-Arkansas border.

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is centered several

hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  The

associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in

organization since yesterday, and there are no indications yet that

the system has a well-defined center of circulation.  However,

environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a

tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days

while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward across

the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa

on Friday.  Some development of this system is anticipated after

that time, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or

early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward

over the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Interests in the

Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system

during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.

Public Advisories on Gordon are issued by the Weather Prediction

Center under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on the

web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Berg

To All,

Well, it looks like the tropics are becoming a little more active.  TS Gordon made landfall yesterday, bringing a lot of rain to the area with several fatalities already.  Hurricane Florence has become a Cat. 3 storm wind of 120 mph.  Florence is still far out in the Atlantic, but forecasted to come close to Bermuda.  We could see another tropical depression by the weekend, and model tracks on 92L are keeping the system south of Hurricane Florence.  We will have to keep watching this system.   Another wave is coming of the coast of Africa and as of now, it is has a low percentage of becoming a tropical depression.

I would like to thank the Pender County Commissioners for approving several budget items that will assist the Pender EOC in managing emergency incidents and events when they occur in the county.   WebEOC management software will be updated, along with new computers.